RCSS Policy Studies 13 

Contents

Chapter 3  Road to Cooperation in the Energy Sector
Chapter 4 Problems & Prospects of Subregional Cooperation in South Asia
Bibliography

Chapter 1: Introduction
The history of the Indian subcontinent after decolonization is a history that partition creates. The partition of the subcontinent in 1947 and again in 1971 left a fractured South Asian psyche, and led virtually to mutual animosity, misperception and misunderstanding among the people, particularly among the states of the region. The people on the other side of the border are considered usually to be the enemy of the first order. Over the years, the statecraft of South Asia manipulated this situation in favour of certain groups of people in power and, up to an extent, the mental gap between the people living in this region only widened.

However, if one looks at the situation of the poverty-stricken people in this region, one can easily identify that, there are several common problems shared perhaps unconsciously by the residents of a geographically contiguous zone, separated by political boundaries. It has been pointed out by different experts in recent times that, there are some problems faced by the members of the contemporary societies across the globe which cannot be efficiently dealt with by the existing nation-state system alone. In other words, along with the state system, there may be a requirement of some transnational initiatives, which can try to solve some of the present-day problems of human society. Against this backdrop, one has to consider some of the major issues in South Asia, which are militating against the progress of the people in this part of the world.

In this context, the present study intends to bring into focus a fresh perspective on the question of power. It is known that, the regions of Eastern and NorthEastern India have a shortage of electricity particularly in the peak hours. Move toward industrialization and economic development in this region would generate more demand for power here, which cannot be met quite economically by the national initiatives alone. Moreover, as northeast India is virtually landlocked (this part of India is only linked to the Indian mainland through a narrow chicken-neck corridor of Siliguri) like Nepal and Bhutan are, any expansion in terms of power generation has to be thought of at a transnational level. It must also be noted that, the contiguous zones of Bangladesh are also in short supply of electricity. However, the concerned experts have indicated that Tripura and some other northeast Indian states have enough stock of natural gas. It has been pointed out too that, the Chittagong Hill Tracts(CHT) and the adjoining areas are also floating on gas. Nepal and Bhutan have water channels like rivers, which could be a crucial source of hydel power. Thus, these complementarities could be put together to solve the power problem faced by the eastern slice of South Asia.

However, it is easier said than done. Before taking any plunge into such a major initiative, the concerned states and their people should have a scope for assessing the pros and cons of the proposed cooperation. Hence the present research.
The major purpose of this study is to enquire into the problems and prospects of subregional cooperation among Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal in the energy sector. To be precise, the project has three different objectives:  first, to evaluate the attempts to promote subregional cooperation in the power sector among Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal, if any; secondly, to identify the major obstacles in the path of promotion of such subregional cooperation here; and thirdly, to identify the potential mutual benefits of such subregional cooperation for the inhabitants of this area.

The study is based on a correlational survey. This survey deals with the existing energy situation in the eastern and northeastern India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. Statistical inferences have been drawn from the data available. Two kinds of data have been used in this study. First, the data concerning the present level of power supply and demand for power in this specific geographical region have been dealt with. Secondly, an attempt has been made to highlight the present and future demand and potential supply of power (through the proposed subregional cooperation). These data have been acquired both in the form of published materials and through interviews with some technical experts of the four concerned countries. Moreover, in order to have a proper idea about the perception of these concerned states regarding the proposed subregional cooperation bureaucrats, politicians and policy-makers of these states have been consulted.

On the basis of these data an attempt gas been made to analyze how the crisis of energy in the eastern part of South Asia could be solved to a great extent through the proposed subregional cooperation Already certain steps have been taken in this direction, but perhaps the concerned states of South Asia have to go many miles in order to change the political mindset, without which such cooperation would be hardly sustainable.
 

Chapter 2: Energy Profile of the Subregion

It may be noted at the very outset that the coal, water resources and natural gas are the principal sources of energy in South Asia, and renewable energy resources have a marginal role so far in the region. Therefore, in this energy profile we shall also discuss the role of the non-conventional energy resources apart from our emphasis on the conventional resources here.

Bangladesh:
Bangladesh is referred to as a land of rivers. Its land is crisscrossed by the waters of the Ganga and Brahmaputra (these rivers are known as the Padma and Jamuna respectively inside Bangladesh). The abundance of water resources in Bangladesh indicates that, there could be a possibility of producing electricity from these water-flows. However, Bangladesh has not really adopted the path of generating hydroelectricity except in the Kaptai project over the Karnaphuli river in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) region.
Therefore, the primary sources of commercial energy in Bangladesh include natural gas, oil and coal, while the bio-mass fuels and the fuels generated from the excreta of household animals are the sources of traditional energy in Bangladesh.  It may be noted at the very outset that, the eastern part of Bangladesh has more energy potential than the rest of the country because this area is rich in natural gas and oil reserves and hydel power (see map 2.1 on the natural resources of Bangladesh). Contrarily, the western part of the country has no developed source of commercial energy.

The estimated quantity of known and exploitable sources of commercial energy in Bangladesh is as follows:

Natural Gas:
The total recoverable reserve of natural gas from 20 gasfields has been reported as 13.74 trillion cubic feet (TCF), out of which 2.86 TCF has been extracted up to December 1996. The net recoverable reserve for the future use was estimated to be 10.88 TCF in January 1997.2  Based on Petrobangla’s own statistics, Bangladesh has already discovered about 21 TCF of natural gas, of which roughly 12.6 TCF can be produced, and used for the country’s benefit. So far, Bangladesh has consumed roughly 3 TCF of this amount leaving about 10 TCF.
 

However, there is a debate on the point of amount of the recoverable reserve of natural gas in Bangladesh. It is interesting to note that some of the non-government organizations (NGOs) and international funding agencies like the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) claim that, the natural gas potentiality of Bangladesh is much higher than the official figure given by the government. The table 2.1 shows the amount of natural gas reserve of Bangladesh (as of December 1996).

Hydroelectricity:
The hydel power resources in Bangladesh are located mainly in the eastern part of the country.  It has been estimated that the maximum availability of electricity from the Kaptai project is 1,000 Gwh per year.3

Coal:
The coal reserve of Bangladesh is located in the western part of the country.  Barapukuria region has an estimated amount of 300 million tonnes of coal, but the net recoverable reserve is said to be 70 million tonnes.  According to one estimate, 1 million tonnes per year will be available from the year 2000.4

The potential reserves of primary commercial energy resources are shown in the Table 2.2. It is estimated that, the existing reserve source of commercial energy may not be adequate for the developmental needs of the country.  In this context, it is also necessary to point out that in Bangladesh so far the exploitation of energy resources is neither comprehensive nor systematic.  There are prospects for augmentation of resources through systematic surveys and explorations, for which investment by the public and the private sector is essential.5

Traditional Energy Sources:
Primary Biomass Fuels:
In Bangladesh, the biomass fuels are usually obtained from three main sources - trees (i.e., fuel-wood), field crops (e.g., agricultural residues) and livestock (e.g., animal dung).  It should be noted that the land is the ultimate resource base that supports the production of total biomass resources.6  Different types of land supplying biomass fuels are enlisted in table 2.3.

It has been estimated that, in 1995, different types of biomass fuels contributed 69.5% of the total energy consumed in Bangladesh.  It is argued that, due to the socioeconomic considerations in the foreseeable future the biomass fuels are going to play an important role in meeting the need of the country, though their relative share in the total energy will be reduced.7
  Table 2.3: Amount of different types of biomass fuels available in Bangladesh Type                                             Amount Reserve Forests                         5.41x106 acres (46% production)
Village forests                            0.74x106 acres
Crop land                                  20.77x106 acres
Culturable wastes                      0.62x106 acres
Current fallow                            1.40x106 acres
Not available for cultivation          6.36x106 acres
Total                                         35.33x106 acres Source: Nurul Islam, “National Energy Policy of Bangladesh and Observations on Some Selected Policy Issues”, a paper presented at the 20th Bangladesh Science Conference organized by Bangladesh Association for the Advancement of Science and BUET during November 20-30, 1998, p.7)

Energy available from the Animal Wastes:
The total cattle population of the country in 1989 was estimated to be 20.36 million heads out of which 56% was male and 46% female. The total estimated working population of the cattle was 12.33 million heads. 92% of the total working cattle was used for cultivation and 0.19% for transportation.8 The milch cows are used for the preparation of land to meet the shortage of the draught cattle. At present, the power tillers and tractors are also used to meet the shortage of animal draught power. The diesel fuel necessary for these devices is accounted for under the agricultural sector.9